Prognostic Factors and Outcomes in Acute Pancreatitis: A Prospective Study
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61919/jhrr.v5i4.1960Keywords:
Acute pancreatitis, BISAP, pancreatic necrosis, prognostic factors.Abstract
Background: Acute pancreatitis varies widely in severity, ranging from mild inflammation to life‑threatening organ failure. Early identification of prognostic indicators is crucial for timely risk stratification. Objective: To assess prognostic factors and clinical outcomes in patients with acute pancreatitis admitted to a tertiary care hospital. Methods: This prospective observational study included 22 adults at Fatima Memorial Hospital, Lahore. Demographics, etiology, clinical presentation, laboratory markers, BISAP scores, Revised Atlanta severity, complications, and outcomes were recorded. Associations were analyzed using Chi‑square or Fisher’s exact tests with odds ratios. Results: Gallstones were the leading cause (45.5%). Mild, moderately severe, and severe disease occurred in 54.5%, 27.3%, and 18.2% of patients. Higher BISAP scores correlated with increased severity (p=0.001). Pancreatic necrosis was strongly associated with ICU admission (75.0% vs 11.1%; p=0.024) and severe disease (75.0% vs 5.6%; p=0.010). One death occurred (4.5%). Conclusion: BISAP score and pancreatic necrosis were key early predictors of severe outcomes in acute pancreatitis. Early bedside risk assessment may support timely identification and management of high‑risk patients.
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